Researchers predict number of cancer deaths for 2011

A study, published today in Annals of Oncology estimates the number of cancer-related deaths in the EU member states for 2011 will be nearly 1.3 million. Using a new mathematical model, the predictions show that cancer mortality rates should fall around 7% for men and 6% for women compared with 2007.

Led by Prof. Carlo La Vecchia (University of Milan) and Prof. Fabio Levi (University of Lausanne) – the study analysed the number of cancer deaths within the European Union from 1970-2007. They also focused specifically on six member states – France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the UK.
They predicted there would be 1,281,466 cancer deaths in the EU in 2011 (721,252 men and 560,184 women), compared to 1,256,001 (703,872 men and 552,129 women) in 2007. When these figures are converted into world standardised rates per 100,000 of the population, this means there will be a fall from 153.8 per 100,000 to 142.8 per 100,000 in men, and from 90.7 to 85.3 in women – a drop of 7% in men and 6% in women – since 2007.
The study also showed that the biggest fall in mortality rates is set to be in Germany, while Poland has the highest total cancer mortality rates in both sexes. Lung cancer rates are rising in women (especially in France and Spain) and dropping in men, while breast cancer rates are steadily decreasing.
Prof La Vecchia concluded: “Despite these favourable trends in cancer death rates in Europe the number of cancer deaths remains approximately stable, due to the ageing of the population. Further, there is a persisting gap in cancer mortality between central and eastern European countries compared to western Europe, and this is likely to persist for the foreseeable future.”

Published: Wednesday, 9th February 2011 by Adelle Kehoe