Apocalypse: 2182?

The potentially hazardous asteroid (PHA) named ‘(101955) 1999 RQ36’ first discovered in 1999 is being investigated by a team of Spanish researchers. It has a one-in-a-thousand chance of colliding with Earth and more than half of this probability points to it happening in 2182.

Using two mathematical models (Monte Carlo Method and line of variations sampling) Maria Eugenia, co-author of the paper explains: “The total impact probability of asteroid ‘(101955) 1999 RQ36’ can be estimated in 0.00092 – approximately one-in-a-thousand chance-, but what is most surpising is that over half this chance corresponds to 2182.”

It is not known the extent of damage that could be caused by this PHA, which is 560 meters in diameter, but the Spanish team along with researchers in Italy and the USA are working hard to pave the way for further research into risk assessment and new technologies to protect the earth from such threats.

This discovery has highlighted the need for constant observation of PHAs and the importance of prediction and timing. For instance, prior to 2060 – a change in ‘(101955 1999 RH36’’s orbit is moderate, it then increases in 2060-2080 as it will approach earth within this time period. Maria states; “If this object had been discovered after 2080, the deflection would require a technology that is not currently available. Therefore, this example suggests that impact monitoring may need to encompass more than one century. Thus, the efforts to deviate this type of object could be conducted with moderate resources, from a technological and financial point of view.”

Published: Wednesday, 28th July 2010 by Adelle Kehoe